Good News About Global Warming?
Thursday April 20, 2006
Tired of reading bad news and dire predictions about climate change? Here’s some good news about global warming—or at least as good as it gets.
According to a new report by researchers at Duke University, the extreme global warming predicted by many previous studies is unlikely to occur.
But don’t get too excited just yet.
Earth will certainly experience significant global warming over the next century. Probably between 2.5 degrees and 8 degrees Fahrenheit, if the new research is correct, instead of the 16 degrees some studies have forecast.
“This still commits us to quite a bit of climate change, but it leaves the door open to avoiding the largest and most devastating consequences," said Gabriele C. Hegerl, a Duke University climate expert who led the study, in an interview with The Washington Post.
That doesn’t get us off the hook entirely, mind you, because an overall increase of even a few degrees could lead to massive storms, droughts and flooded coastal areas, but we should be able to avoid human extinction and the worst environmental disruptions if the new predictions hold true. Best of all, perhaps, Hegerl says the new research may convince governments that there is still time to take action to reduce global warming.
The Duke researchers used computer models to analyze historical climate data up to 700 years old and to predict “climate sensitivity,” which shows how much the global average temperature is likely to change if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere double.
"This is the first use of several different independent data sets to come up with a constraint on climate sensitivity," said Reto Knutti of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "It's a very solid piece of science."
More information:
Climate Change Will Be Significant but Not Extreme, Study Predicts – The Washington Post
Record Increase in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sparks Global Controversy
Top 10 Things You Can Do to Reduce Global Warming
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
What Causes Hurricanes?
Most Americans Believe Global Warming is a Threat
According to a new report by researchers at Duke University, the extreme global warming predicted by many previous studies is unlikely to occur.
But don’t get too excited just yet.
Earth will certainly experience significant global warming over the next century. Probably between 2.5 degrees and 8 degrees Fahrenheit, if the new research is correct, instead of the 16 degrees some studies have forecast.
“This still commits us to quite a bit of climate change, but it leaves the door open to avoiding the largest and most devastating consequences," said Gabriele C. Hegerl, a Duke University climate expert who led the study, in an interview with The Washington Post.
That doesn’t get us off the hook entirely, mind you, because an overall increase of even a few degrees could lead to massive storms, droughts and flooded coastal areas, but we should be able to avoid human extinction and the worst environmental disruptions if the new predictions hold true. Best of all, perhaps, Hegerl says the new research may convince governments that there is still time to take action to reduce global warming.
The Duke researchers used computer models to analyze historical climate data up to 700 years old and to predict “climate sensitivity,” which shows how much the global average temperature is likely to change if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere double.
"This is the first use of several different independent data sets to come up with a constraint on climate sensitivity," said Reto Knutti of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "It's a very solid piece of science."
More information:
Climate Change Will Be Significant but Not Extreme, Study Predicts – The Washington Post
Record Increase in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sparks Global Controversy
Top 10 Things You Can Do to Reduce Global Warming
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
What Causes Hurricanes?
Most Americans Believe Global Warming is a Threat
Comments
Maybe Prince Albert of Monaco would dissagree, having just come back from the north pole and seeing how it has shrunk already:
Do your part to save the planet, says prince
james
Right, because anecdotal evidence from some non-expert is both conclusive and compelling…
And massive amounts of melting ice is not?
james
Re: “Good news about global warming”…sorry, I don’t agree that this Duke University science report is such good news. It will just give our government more reason to drag their feet as they have maintained all along that predictions are too dire. We know the old saw about human nature, if you can put off until tomorrow what you should be doing today,…etc.
There’s no “good news” when it comes to the biodiversity of our planet being depleted daily… It’s horribly sad to think that “polar bear” will be to my grandkids growing up what “duckbilled platypus” was to me growing up… An amazingly unique creature that I never had the opportunity to see in person because their habitat was completely wiped out by the cancerous growth and irresponsible ways of the human race.
Here’s some great about Global Warming from 2055:
http://renewus.org
ok, back to the here and now:
http://climatecrisis.net
Global dimming is a real spanner in the works, isn’t it? hardly ever mentioned but the current cooling effect keeps the world alive but ony while industry pollutes the air. We will suffer certain Doom if we clean the air and doom if we don’t. Nevertheless not to worry, the world will continue burning fossil fuels to drive the economy whether we find alternatives or not.
Developed wealthy nations can afford a choice of different ways to make energy but poor nations can not.
Have you guys really thought what will happen when you don’t need fossil fuel?
I wonder if anyone else has realized yet that alternative energy will actually encourage more fossil fuel use?.
The successful development of clean technologies in western nations will make the total volume of available energy larger and therefore reduce the need of fossil fuel. However this will have the effect of making oil or coal available to developing nations.
Even in developed nations Once electrical energy demand has been catered for by nuclear wave wind geothermal the coal and oil suppliers will still sell their products to other furnace users who’s business will benifit from the new abundance in available energy supplies.
Major energy exporters will make billions as they feed world demand and will exploit any fuel anywhere , coal shale, oil sands, meathane hydrates will all become alternatives and even the harvest of carbon credit forests will happen to sell the timber offsets as firewood.
The other industries that need furnaces will use more fuel in the future as the third world developes as industrial clones encouraged by their western mentors. These include all industries involved in cement, aluminium, iron, nickel that will develop new demands as they step up production to meet increasing costs demanded by carbon trading.
The cause of most environmental damage has always been human activity, consumerism has industrialized wholesale destruction in the last century and the global encouragement of economic growth has caused wars, famine, droughts refugees, genocide and disease. These achievements have also permitted billions in world populations to add to economic demands while benefiting from the short term gains of burning an energy that takes billions of years to form. There is no great willingness shown by any nation to reverse global warming or stopm industry because the negative economic effect will end the comforts enjoyed by billions and these people all want life to continue as it is.
Its time to realize that any efforts that attempts to rectify the problem by encouraging an alternative economic growth is just a form of business as usual and any plan that demands offset measures will also demand that the economy cover the extra costs, which will inevitably lead to more burning.