Q: What does the report say about melting sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctica?
A: The report predicts severe melting of Arctic ice during the 21st century and significant melting of the Greenland ice fields over the next few hundred years.
At the same time, the Antarctic ice sheet, which is much colder, may actually increase in size because of increased snowfall in that region. The increase of Antarctic ice could offset rising sea levels slightly between now and 2100, but not enough to change the overall trend of rapidly rising sea levels.
Q: What can we do to stop global warming and avoid the consequences of rising sea levels, desertification, etc.?
A: The report doesn’t make specific recommendations to help policymakers combat global warming, but scientists and environmental experts commenting on the report have said that it will require an immediate shift away from the widespread and unfettered use of coal and oil and an aggressive expansion of clean, renewable energy.
But how much of a shift? Many scientists—including those who authored the IPCC report—are saying that the atmosphere now contains so much heat-trapping greenhouse gas that it is no longer possible to stop global warming. To stabilize the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, for example, would require a 70 percent to 80 percent decrease in CO2 emissions. And a change that severe would plunge most of the world into pre-industrial living conditions: no cars or airplanes, no electricity, no factories.
A more realistic approach being advocated by many scientists and policymakers is to slow down the build up of greenhouse gases significantly through conservation, energy efficiency and a dramatic increase in the use of renewable energy and alternative fuels to reduce the use of coal and oil. By stretching the warming over centuries rather than decades, there could be a chance to mitigate many of the worst effects.
Achieving that goal will require consumers, corporations and governments around the world to make a lasting and meaningful commitment to change—a key ingredient that has been missing from previous attempts to reduce and mitigate global warming. The hope is that this new report will help to motivate people and governments worldwide to take action on behalf of themselves, the planet, and future generations.
Q: Do all scientists agree with the conclusions of the IPCC report?
A: Of course not. Absolute scientific agreement is virtually impossible to achieve, but this report is about as close to full consensus as the scientific community ever gets.
Nevertheless, some scientists will offer legitimate arguments against certain conclusions in the report, arguing that the authors went too far. On the other hand, many of the hundreds of scientists involved in producing the report and its summary argued for stronger language on several key points and still feel that the report actually understates the urgency of the problem and the extent of the dangers.
It is also clear that some “critics for hire” will continue to raise questions about climate change science, including this report. The day before the report summary was released, for example, it was revealed that an ExxonMobil-funded think tank and lobbying group was offering to pay scientists and economists $10,000 and more to write essays disputing the IPCC report. This is part of a longstanding effort by ExxonMobil and some other companies to create confusion among consumers and policymakers about the reality, causes and consequences of global warming.
Q: What will happen as a result of the IPCC report on global warming?
A: To begin with 113 nations, including the United States, have approved the report, so a large number of world leaders are taking it seriously. That’s a good start, but the question is whether the conclusions offered in the report will be able to inspire the kind of action that is needed to create meaningful change.
Although the United States approved the report, for example, U.S. officials quickly reasserted their opposition to mandated cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, citing fear of “unintended consequences” such as possible job loss if the government required Americans to use less fossil fuel. Nevertheless, many members of Congress are already working to introduce legislation to mandate or promote the increased use of renewable energy and to lower U.S. dependence on fossil fuels.
When the report was released, France immediately called for a new international environmental body aimed at slowing global warming, one that might also have the power to punish violators for non-compliance. Forty-five nations answered the call, and more are expected to follow. The first meeting of the new group is expected to take place in Morocco in the spring of 2007.
In addition, the issue of global warming and the conclusions of the IPCC report are sure to be major topics at the G8 summit in June 2007 and the United Nations climate talks in Indonesia in December 2007.
With the Kyoto Protocol due to expire in 2012, and with many nations expected to fail in their commitments under that treaty, world leaders and environmentalists have been eager to develop a new international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions—but those talks have stalled.
IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri told Reuters that he hopes the report will motivate people to act: "I hope this report will shock people, governments, into taking more serious action, as you really can't get a more authentic and a more credible piece of scientific work."
For more information about the report and what it says about the link between global warming and human activity, see page 1.
